潜力币专区 央视外语频道专访蔡维德:中...

央视外语频道专访蔡维德:中国禁令对全球加密货币的影响

2021年5月31日,央视外语频道,中国国际电视台新闻记者王乃仟就“Will China’s cryptocurrency ban spark a global crypto crisis? ”话题,对蔡维德教授进行了专访。蔡维德教授创立了中国首个高校区块链实验室“北航数字社会与区块链实验室”,更是全球首家高校区块链研究机构“伦敦大学学院区块链研究中心”(UCL CBT)的科学顾问。

本此专访在北京金融安全产业园,天德科技研发总部进行。

以下为专访部分精选内容:

中国在采取其他各类相关举措的同时,也在努力大幅减少境内的相关活动,包括加密货币交易和挖矿。也就是说,中国几乎关停了整个产业。

这一次,不仅是中国,许多其他国家也试图禁止加密货币。各国政府这样做的原因有若干,其中之一当然是各类加密货币的不稳定性。另一个原因是,这些加密货币的市场价值涨幅惊人,已经超过国内最大的银行,因此会对国家经济产生巨大影响。

这些数字货币并非国家货币,而是国际货币。如果某一国家经济活动中有相当一部分是国际性的,那么该国就会承受巨大的国际影响。许多国家可能并不希望如此。所以这也是为什么很多国家表示会禁止各类加密货币。

国际货币基金组织在2020年10月发布的一份报告里也谈到了这一点。加密货币或数字货币具有国际属性,可能对许多国家造成压力或产生影响。所以这是各国禁止加密货币的一个原因。

当然,还有另外一种可能。一篇来自美国的文章称,比特币等加密货币有可能成为全球储备货币。如果这成为现实,那么整个金融市场的结构都会发生改变。这意味着,我们将迎来一个新的布雷顿森林体系。我们需要重复1944年的那段历史,重建国际金融体系。对此,我不知道世界各国是否做好了准备。这不仅涉及巨大的工作量,而且过于复杂,会带来巨大压力,世界根本无法应对。

中国政府如果禁止加密货币挖矿和交易活动,无疑会对加密货币的加速发展或发展前景造成巨大打击。这一定会对加密货币的价格和波动性产生诸多制约和限制,但我不确定加密货币是否会就此终结。我不认为。原因有几点。

首先,2008,始于美国的次贷危机演变为全球性金融危机。许多银行可能会倒闭,或者说本来会倒闭,但政府认为,这些银行规模过大,因此不能倒闭。

再来看目前的比特币市值。我前天晚上刚刚查过,比特币现在的市值大约是摩根大通市值的两倍,而后者是美国最大的银行。如果比特币的市值归零,基本上就相当于两家美国最大的银行完全倒闭。这会带来极为严重的经济影响,造成一系列毁灭性后果。所以我认为,加密货币市场不会因此而崩盘。

Editor’s note:Chinahas been tightening its regulation over cryptocurrencies. A recent move hasbeen its ban on financial institutions, including banks and online paymentchannels, from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions. Whatdoes China’s crackdown mean for crypto in the country? Why has China tightenedits regulation of cryptocurrency? How might China’s ban affect the worldcryptocurrency market?

Tsai Wei-Tek, a blockchain expert, a professor fromBeihang University shared his views.The views expressed in the video are hisown and not necessarily those of CGTN.

CGTN:What does China’scrackdown mean for crypto in the country?

Tsai:Theannouncement means that China is trying to significantly reduce the relevantactivities in the country. And this includes any crypto transactions andmining. So practically, it shuts down the whole industry.

CGTN:Why has Chinatightened its regulation of cryptocurrency?

Tsai:At thistime not only China, but a lot of other countries are also trying to ban thesecryptos.There are several reasons that governments would like to ban thesecryptocurrencies. One of the reasons goes to the volatility of them. The secondis that these cryptocurrencies’ market cap has gone up so much which is biggerthan their largest bank in the country. So they will have a lot of economicinfluence on the country.

One needsto remember that these digital currencies are not national currencies, butinternational currencies. Therefore, if a significant portion of the economicactivities belong to the international activities, this country will be undersevere international influence.

And manycountries may not want that.

The InternationalMonetary Fund has published a report in October 2020 that said that thesecryptocurrencies are international activities and many countries will be understress or influence of them.

There isalso another scenario. An article in the United States stated that thecryptocurrency such as Bitcoin may become the world reserve currency. If thishappened, the whole financial market structure will have to be changed.

It meansthat we will have a new Bretton Woods. We will have to go back to 1944 andreconstruct the new world financial structure. I’m not sure the world is readyfor it. It’s too complicated and have too much stress. The world is not readyfor any of this.

CGTN:How might China’sban affect the world cryptocurrency market?

Tsai:If theChinese government bans mining and then the transactions, it will certainly puta significant damage to the acceleration or the growth of thesecryptocurrencies.

This willcertainly put a lot of restraints on the cryptocurrency price and volatility.But I’m not sure that the cryptocurrency will be dead by this. There areseveral reasons for that.

First ofall, in 2008, when the U.S. was having a financial crisis which eventuallybecame a global financial crisis, many banks may have failed, or would havefailed. But the government said that these banks are too big to fail. If youlook at the current bitcoin market cap, it is about double of the JP Morganmarket cap. JP Morgan is the largest bank in the U.S.

So, ifBitcoin market cap becomes zero, practically we have two banks, the two biggestbanks in the U.S. completely collapse. And the economic consequence of that istoo serious. And it will damage a lot of things. So I do not expect that thecrypto world will collapse totally due to this.

(文字来源:央视外语频道专访)

据欧易OKEx数据显示,发文时比特币价格:36033.74USDT DNotes Portion First ZERO UCL CBT Double BLOCKCHAIN BitUP Current

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